The election is over, as is Clive Palmer's massive $60 million cash splash, and the advertising industry is looking for some rub off from Prime Minister Scott Morrison "miracle" win and a return of normal programming.
The Coalition win, by Morrison, now called the "Messiah from the Shire", means no change in economic policy but promises made during the election campaign, including the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, will provide extra stimulus and economic momentum.
Analysts say the removal of election uncertainty will allow Australians to get back to business. CommSec says both the Aussie dollar and sharemarket have tended to rise in the three weeks after poll dates in recent Federal elections in Australia.
"Removal of the uncertainty on possible changes to franking credits and negative gearing (as propsoed by Labor) should provide support for the sharemarket," says CommSec chief economist Craig James. "Removal of the uncertainty about the implications of a change of government will support the Australian dollar."
Adland has been reporting tough trading conditions. Numbers from media agencies show seven straight months of ad spend decline. The April fall for SMI was double digit at 18.1%.
Much of that can be explained by two elections, NSW and a federal poll, plus a string of public holidays, including Easter and ANZAC Day. Advertisers tend to spend less during elections, avoiding the risk of being overshadowed by political issues.
Lucie Jansen, Spark Foundry’s head of investment, says there's reason to remain optimistic of a market bounce now that these events have passed.
"While the current downturn cannot be ignored, things may not necessarily be quite as bleak as they appear," Jansen says.
She says it might take a month or two to settle post-election. But the extent to which the gains will be able to address the first half decline remains to be seen. She thinks it unlikely there will be a full recovery in 2019.
"Our TV partners remain confident in their slates and we are expecting a few announcements in the near future, confirming new programming to augment their existing offerings for the rest of the year," Jansen says.
"Furthermore, international sporting events - the Ashes in the UK and the Rugby World Cup in Japan - will provide additional opportunities for clients in this market. Strong TV numbers for locally produced content alongside the marquee sporting events will underpin confidence for our clients in H2.
"There is always the danger that advertisers will reduce marketing budgets in the light of perceived economic and/or consumer confidence.
"However, increased marketing spend post-election is expected and not only because advertisers can now avoid the clutter and struggle for standout of the pre-election period.
"Many clients recognise the need to continue spending during periods of uncertainty, in order to retain or grow market share, to correctly position their brand to consumers in a changing environment, and to ultimately reap the rewards of continued customer engagement in the long term."
Free TV Australia chief executive officer, Bridget Fair, says the industry looks forward to working with the Morrison Government on the issues of importance to the future or commercial television broadcasters.
“Free TV remains an important sector for our community, providing more Australian drama, local news, entertainment and live sports programming than any other platform, and all free," she says.
She lists the key issues for Free TV as taking action on the recommendations of the ACCC Digital Platforms inquiry and modernising Australian content rules to recognise the significant changes in viewing habits and the media landscape since they were introduced in the 1970s.
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