Alex Brownsell - WARC Media
Global spending on linear TV ads has dropped to $US143.9 billion, slipping to just 12.4% of total ad spend this year from 41.3% in 2013 as audiences shift to connected TV (CTV), according to figures from WARC Media.
The figure is expected to fall further to $139.1 billion by 2026, marking the lowest level since 2005.
In absolute terms, linear TV ad spend is down 27.5% since 2014, or 50.8% when adjusted for inflation.
The tech and electronics category has cut spending by 42%, while household and domestic products increased investment by 12%.
CTV accounts for nearly half of all TV usage in the US, according to Nielsen.
Global CTV spend is forecast to reach $39.9bn this year and rise to $44.7bn in 2026.
More than half of marketers (56%) plan to increase CTV and OTT budgets next year, driven largely by growth in the Americas.
“There’s no doubt that linear TV’s role is slowly waning, both in viewing and ad spend, as audiences shift to the expanding ecosystem of CTV,” said Alex Brownsell, head of content at WARC Media.
“As consumers move seamlessly from one form of video to the next, advertisers are being challenged to reappraise how they define TV, be it a specific type of video ad format, a media owner or simply the largest screen in the home, with important implications for planning and buying, frequency management and measurement.”
The generational gap is pronounced.
In the UK, linear TV’s weekly reach has dropped 10 points since 2021, now sitting at 73.8%, according to Ofcom.
In the US, younger viewers aged 16–24 watch 81 minutes of linear TV per day, compared to over two hours among older audiences.
Costs for linear TV advertising are rising in major markets, despite declining reach.
CPMs are increasing globally, particularly in the US, UK and Germany, while markets such as Brazil and Japan have seen costs fall below 2012 levels.
YouTube continues to push for TV ad budgets, generating $36bn in ad revenue in 2024, more than all four major US broadcast networks combined.
It now holds a 12.8% share of TV screen viewing in the US, according to Nielsen.
The platform is investing in sports rights and exploring sitcom-style programming to expand its appeal to traditional TV buyers.
UK TV measurement body Barb has started tracking YouTube channel viewership on TV sets, offering some insight into the platform’s TV-like presence.
Early results show relatively low reach at the individual channel level, with kids' programming dominating the top 20.
The blurring of definitions and buying models creates challenges for advertisers.
Traditional media buyers and digital teams often operate separately, with little standardisation across measurement frameworks.
Broadcasters face pressure to show outcomes, not just exposures, as Big Tech pitches performance metrics directly to CFOs.
Retail media is emerging as a major force. WARC forecasts global spend in the category will overtake the total TV market next year.
Retailers position TV as part of a full-funnel solution, using first-party data to connect upper-funnel branding with lower-funnel performance.
Creative formats are also shifting.
As standard broadcast units become less dominant, brands experiment with QR codes, interactive overlays and gaming integrations.
AI is expected to disrupt how TV ads are produced and delivered.
TV media owners target small businesses, which currently spend just 9% of their ad budgets on TV, compared to 38% for larger brands.
The rise of programmatic buying in CTV may open the door to a broader base of advertisers.
The focus is increasingly on understanding how different formats and platforms fit together and how to measure their impact effectively.
Meanwhile, the Australian market shows a more cautious but resilient picture amid shifting dynamics.
Despite a 12.2% drop in total ad spend for July compared to last year, a figure partly skewed by the Olympic-fuelled surge in July 2024 and federal election impacts, year-to-date ad spend remains positive at 1.4% growth for the first seven months of 2025.
Free-to-air TV, which accounts for around 25% of Australia’s ad spend, saw a 13% decline in May, highlighting ongoing challenges for traditional linear TV channels.
This contrasts with digital video streaming platforms, which grew by 7.8% year on year, including streaming and BVOD.
Out-of-home (OOH) advertising continues to gain traction in Australia, representing 15% of total ad spend and posting a 4.6% increase in May.
The channel leads year-to-date growth at 11.1%, driven by roadside formats offering high reach and visibility.
Cinema advertising also showed strong growth, surging 32.6% in July compared to the previous year, buoyed by blockbuster releases.
However, industry experts caution cinema’s small market share tempers the impact of this growth.
Australia’s linear TV market is estimated at $143.9bn globally but faces a steeper local decline, down 18% in July despite stable audiences, according to media research.
This reflects a shift towards streaming and programmatic video advertising, mirroring global trends.
Media analysts emphasise the need for brands to adapt, increasing investment in high-attention formats like OOH and BVOD.
Marketers remain cautious but optimistic about ramping up spending in the latter half of 2025.
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