Credit: Alexandra Gorn via Unsplash
The timing was bad for the latest ad spend numbers, as measured by media agency bookings, but a deeper worry is that marketers might hesitate to deploy their budgets, according to industry analysts.
The comparison to the same month last year was a steep mountain to climb against Olympic spend, and this was coupled with the slide post the federal election.
The weak number, down 12.2% for July, can be partly put at the feat of fear. Brands, urge media buyers, need to dive in hard to get the best out of the second half of the year.
But some see the rise of optimism with the overall market in positive territory when measured over the calendar year, up 1.4% for the first seven months.
Shai Luft, co-founder at Bench Media, describes July SMI as a wake-up call.
“Ad spend fell 12.2% year-on-year, but let’s not forget the comparison is against an Olympics-fuelled July 2024 that artificially inflated demand,” he said.
“Strip out that sugar hit, and the real story is one of fragile business confidence and brands sitting on the sidelines as the slow drip of rate cuts fails to spark optimism.
“Cinema was the only bright spot, surging 32.6% off the back of blockbusters like Jurassic World, Superman and Fantastic Four, though hardly a game changer.
“For marketers, this is the moment to test, learn and buy smart - not sit it out and let others take market share.”
Nick Murdoch, managing partner, Yango, a 12.2% drop in total ad spend is significant but the corresponding drop in government spending and the Olympics make it a bit of an anomaly.
“If the market drops double digits again next month, we can all start worrying,” he said.
“Our feeling is that clients are cautious, but they’re still looking for growth - that means they’ll need to ramp it up for the busy back half.
“We’re seeing lots of planning happening right now, it might be the coffee talking, but we are quite bullish for the back half. It feels like there is optimism around.
““Out-of-home and TV should bounce back as the summer months and footy finals impact spends, then it’s retail season, so there are some significant factors in play that point to robust activity ahead. Good luck out there."
Media analyst Steve Allen at Pearman said consumers remain cautious, if not slightly pessimistic.
“However, July YoY was a Summer Olympics month, and that alone normally spikes media turnover by $70 million to $100 million,” he said.
“Additionally, late bookings and adjustments always add $20 million to $30 million (between 2-3%) in monthly turnover updates.
“We believe the consumer market is turning upwards slowly. Only now can advertisers see green shoots.
“Thus the next few months should see a steady climb.
“Those advertisers who have been consistent and sometimes aggressive YTD, according to the profit reporting season, have reaped rich rewards. There have been some stand-out results, on this criteria alone.
“We believe many of the indicators which ruffle consumers, are now coming to a more predictable order.”
Elise Hedley-Dale, media director, Media Words, July may look soft on paper but it’s more about timing -- the election unwind and Olympic base now gone -- than structural weakness.
“What we are seeing at Media Words is brands moving beyond just buying platform impressions, shifting spend into broad-reach, high-attention channels like out-of-home, where context and placement matter,” she said.
“Too often planners gloss over the functional and emotional role media plays, but that’s exactly where OOH delivers.
“With the right creative, out-of-home is a standout -- attracting brands with new confidence.
“Streaming also unlocks powerful storytelling, but only when the creative is fit for format.
“And cinema, too often the forgotten medium, has a unique ability to engage memory and shape perspective. It would be great to see more brands take advantage of those storytelling capabilities.”
Alfie Lagos, founder and director, Lexlab, said blaming the Olympics comparison or global uncertainty misses the real story.
“This isn't about rough year-on-year comparison numbers, it's about fear,” he said.
“After navigating a company through COVID and seeing plenty of market cycles before that, this feels different.
“It's not just the government pulling back or auto brands staying quiet. It's the whole market holding its breath at once. That kind of synchronised hesitation only happens when businesses stop believing in tomorrow. (US president) Trump’s schizophrenic tariffs really don't help as well.
“The irony? Consumers haven't given up. Roy Morgan's latest confidence data shows sentiment actually improving, up to 83.3 in early September. Still cautious, sure, but moving in the right direction. Meanwhile, marketers are acting like the world's ending.
“Cinema's supposedly the bright spot? Please. When barely 20% of the market visits a cinema per month, according to Roy Morgan total reach numbers for June 2025, a percentage jump doesn’t mean much for the broader market. It's like celebrating your empty restaurant got slightly less empty.
“The only categories spending with conviction are banks and insurance. Defensive plays from sectors that know standing still means losing ground.
“Here's what worries me: when everyone waits for everyone else to move first, nobody moves. That's how recoveries die before they start. August pacings look better, and maybe rate cuts will help. But confidence doesn't come from central banks. It comes from believing your business has something worth saying.
“The brands brave enough to speak up while others stay silent won't just weather this. They'll define what comes next.”
Phil McDonald, CEO at BCM, said it’s now officially impossible to accurately predict what will happen with media spend in Australia.
"And anyone who thinks they can - are having a lend," he said. "And the latest figures of cinema up by 32.6% and digital down by 11% in July prove it.
"However, what you can predict is that advertisers and good media agencies now fully understand that each and every campaign must be planned on a case by case basis.
"There are no default strategies or channels that always work. Each brief must be evaluated on its merits and smart, insightful strategies need to be created to reach the right audiences at the right time with the right message. And I think that’s why we are seeing these fluctuations.
"That said I am making a small prediction that cinema won’t be up by 32.6% in the August data – sorry I couldn’t help myself."
Ros Allison, head of Product & Innovation, Magna, said the Australian economy is showing relative resilience to global tariff shocks and geopolitical upheavals, though the ad market is extremely short, and some pullbacks now evident from global clients.
"Linear TV market down 18% for the month, despite audience stability, similar for linear Radio," said Allison.
"A softer month for OOH after a stellar run in H1. Superman and Krypto saving Cinema, delivering the biggest July on record, and up a whopping 35% on last year."
Lee Stephens, executive chair, Meerkat, said July’s flat media spend results are no surprise for those on the ground, particularly for grocery and food more broadly.
“While the ABS latest household spend report (June 2025) showed a small increase in household spending, the lead up to July was flat at best, with consumer sentiment remaining pessimistic,” he said. “This weighed heavily on grocery and food media budgets.
“Cinema was always going to have a cracker of a month thanks to global releases of Superman, Jurassic World, Smurfs and the Fantastic Four. It will be a hard act to follow in August.”
Nicola Dow, senior investment manager, Woolworths Group @ dentsu, said a 1.4% increase in calendar year to date (CYTD) ad spend, in a year marked by global uncertainty and shifting consumer sentiment, shows the market is adapting by focusing on what truly matters: capturing consumer attention.
“As spending and engagement habits evolve, advertisers are prioritising formats that deliver impact and meaningful connections,” said Dow.
“Whilst outdoor was not as strong for July down 7.9%, street furniture saw double-digit YoY growth, underscoring the continued demand for high-reach channels that deliver more with less.
“Looking at CYTD, Outdoor leads all channels at 11.1% growth, driven by roadside formats that offer scale and visibility. Forward bookings are already at 89% of last year’s total, reflecting strong confidence and fierce competition for premium assets.
“While a smaller-volume channel, cinema is another standout +32.6% YOY for July and +9.9% CYTD. A resurgent box office, fuelled by blockbuster releases and upgraded in-theatre experiences, is driving strong advertiser demand. Brands recognise the big screen’s unique ability to deliver undistracted, immersive attention, making it one of 2025’s most culturally resonant environments.
“While linear TV is down 7.2% CYTD, BVOD remains a bright spot, leveraging advanced data and targeting to pair precision reach with premium content. July TV spend was down 17.3%, partly reflecting the Olympic uplift in 2024, but also reinforcing the trend toward more measurable, attention-led video strategies.
“Digital continues to power growth, with video at the forefront. Investment is focused on high-impact formats like BVOD, social video, and premium digital environments. August will be one to watch, with many tentpole programs launching across screens.
“Demand is also strong across key categories, with insurance up 16% CYTD. Both established players and challengers in the insurance space are increasing spend to remain relevant in a competitive, uncertain landscape.”
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