Virginia Hyland.
Virginia Hyland, CEO & Commercial Partner, Squad M&A
At AdNews LIVE, I joined a panel called The Partner Rethink. It was billed as a conversation about how partners and suppliers see the market shifting. What it became was something more urgent — a frank discussion about whether independent agencies are genuinely facing the scale of change in front of them, or managing around it.
The room was full of agency leaders. The questions were sharp. Here is what the conversation confirmed.
The capabilities attracting premium multiples have changed — fast
The question I am asked most often by founders is some version of: what is my agency worth right now? The honest answer is that it depends entirely on what your agency can do — and whether those capabilities sit in the parts of the market that are growing.
Agencies commanding higher EBITDA multiples share three things: genuine capability in performance media, retail media or AI-driven marketing; proprietary tools or processes clients cannot easily replicate; and recurring retainer revenue. Everything else is trading at lower multiple. That gap has never been wider.
Retail media is the clearest example of where buyer interest is sharpest right now — the major grocery, pharmacy and marketplace platforms are building out significant media businesses, and agencies that can plan, buy and optimise across those environments are in demand. Performance specialists with proprietary data infrastructure are similarly sought after. As are agencies that have built AI into their actual workflow, not just their credentials deck.
The underlying driver is structural. Content-driven advertising — television, audio, print, social video — still generates $19.7 billion in Australia in 2026, about 63% of total ad revenue. But that share falls to 58% by 2031 as performance, retail media and AI-driven channels take ground. Buyers are pricing agencies based on where they sit in that shift.
The same force stripping loyalty from brands is coming for agencies
The discussion that generated the most reaction on the panel was about AI agents and what they actually mean for client relationships. Deloitte estimates almost A$1 trillion in Australian consumer spending will be influenced by AI agents. Seventy-three percent of Australians have already used AI to research products. Accenture found 90% of frequent AI users would switch from a preferred brand if an AI recommended something better.
The switching friction that kept customers loyal is being stripped away by software that never gets tired and never stops comparing. The same dynamic applies to agencies. Clients who stayed because switching felt too disruptive are in a different environment now. The agencies that will hold and grow those relationships are the ones helping clients win in an agentic world — making brands machine-readable and competitive in the environments where discovery is now happening. Adobe data shows traffic from AI sources to retail websites grew 393% year-on-year. That is where your clients' customers are going.
Three platforms — Alphabet, Meta and Amazon — already control 57.6% of all advertising revenue outside China. Global ad revenue as a share of GDP is at its highest since the dotcom peak of 1999. The pie is growing. But access to it, for agencies without the right capabilities, is not guaranteed.
The integration-first model is the proof of concept
When the panel turned to what winning looks like in three to five years, I kept coming back to Stagwell. Listed on NASDAQ, $2.8 billion in revenue, 18% EBITDA margin, they are a challenger, at scale. In 2024 they recorded $382 million in net new business, up 41% year-on-year, with General Motors, Target, Delta Airlines and Visa on the roster.
Stagwell was built integrated from day one — deliberately complementary capabilities across creativity, media, data and digital product, connected by shared technology infrastructure they call The Machine. They systematically moved clients to long-term AOR retainers: 72andSunny went from 47% to 75% AOR revenue in a single year. That is where sustainable margin lives. That gap is the opportunity for independent agencies in Australia willing to assemble for complementarity, invest in shared technology, and build structures that move faster than incumbents.
What the window looks like
One issue that did not get enough airtime: the talent pipeline. IAB data shows entry-level roles are now just 1% of agency vacancies. Half of all open roles require six-plus years of experience. That is a five-to-ten-year time bomb. The agencies getting it right are treating junior talent as an investment — training them on AI from day one, not using automation as a reason not to hire.
The overall picture from AdNews LIVE is a market bifurcating clearly. Agencies with genuine specialist capability in performance, retail media and AI, with integrated offerings and the right infrastructure, are in a strong position. The undifferentiated middle is facing a harder five years.
The global advertising market is growing at its fastest rate since the dot-com era. Buyer appetite for well-constructed independent agencies with the right capability mix remains strong. But the preparation window is narrowing. The decisions that determine which side of this market you're on — building the right capabilities, systematising AI, moving clients onto retainer — cannot be left until the moment feels right.
The question for every independent founder is not whether the market is shifting. It clearly is. The question is whether you are building the capabilities that put you on the right side of it.
Virginia Hyland is CEO and Commercial Partner at Squad M&A, which launched in 2025 advising independent agency founders and acquirers from global agencies, private equity groups, independent agencies on mergers, acquisitions and growth strategies. Her previous experience includes launching and managing one of the most successful Australian Independent Agencies and as CEO AUNZ for Havas Media. She spoke on the Partner Rethink panel at AdNews LIVE, Sydney, June 2026. www.squadma.com.au