A prolonged conflict in the Gulf region could threaten $39.6bn of global advertising growth over 2026, according to a new study from WARC Media, a marketing intelligence firm.
The projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, using a network that projects advertising investment trends.
In its report WARC modeled three scenarios of increasing severity to assess the potential impact of the Gulf Crisis on global ad markets: Baseline, a short, contained shock in which the Strait of Hormuz closure is brief and markets absorb the impact without lasting damage.
Moderate impact, a prolonged shock in which oil prices remain elevated for one to three years, consistent with trends observed during the 1991 Gulf War, and severe impact, a systemic shock comparable in scale to the 1973 oil crisis, with aggressive monetary tightening and sustained second-round inflation.
In its baseline scenario, Warc forecast global ad spend growing 11.5% in 2026 to $1.39 trillion, driven largely by the continued dominance of major online platforms.
A moderate scenario is expected to remove $20.5bn from this year's incremental growth, while a severe impact scenario could remove $39.6bn over 2026 and a further $54.1bn throughout 2027, a two-year hit of $93.7bn.
“The IMF predicts Southeast Asia will be the hardest-hit region on the continent, with the Gulf crisis exposing vulnerabilities in energy imports and trade flows,” said WARC.
In a baseline scenario, Southeast Asia grows at 6.9% to $24.8bn in 2026, but could fall to 6.3% in a moderate scenario, and could fall further to a 3.6% growth in a severe scenario.
Australian ad spend is forecast to grow 6.2% this year, to $26.18bn in 2026, with search, online display and VoD the key growth drivers, while linear TV and publishing continue to decline.
China's exposure was also identified as high, with imported energy and shipping costs compressing industrial margins and export competitiveness in both moderate and severe scenarios.
It had a modeled baseline ad spend growth of 7.9%, $223.1bn for 2026, but could fall to 5.3% growth in a severe scenario.
Latin America, led by Brazil and Mexico, had the strongest baseline ad spend growth of any region in the forecast at 12.8% to $27.8bn in 2026.
The US is expected to grow 9.5%, but could lose $9.8bn in growth over a severe scenario, reducing to 3.4%.
The markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain, are reportedly already seeing weakened demand, particularly from global advertisers.
Under the severe scenario, GCC ad spend could tip into decline, falling 0.2% in 2026, an 11.9 percentage point swing against the baseline expectation of growth by 11.7%.
Ad spend across Europe, where major economies are already stagnating, is forecast to rise 5.6% to $109.0bn this year, though this could ease to 1.8% growth in the severe scenario.
The UK (6.3%), Germany (6.7%) and France (2.7%) are all expected to increase ad spend this year, though the severe scenario would shave an average of 3.1 percentage points from growth forecasts, which would push France into decline.
Travel and transport ad spend is forecast to decline 3.5% this year even in baseline scenarios.
Automotive ad spend remains up 6.7% globally, despite being largely flat in Western Europe.
Growth in the food sector is steady at 10.3% in the 2026 Baseline scenario, falling to a 9.5% growth in spend over a severe scenario.
WARC said global linear TV's decline was likely to accelerate as the situation worsened, with advertisers favouring short-term performance channels over brand-building.
Social media growth remained strong, though cost pressures on small and medium-sized businesses left platforms somewhat exposed.
WARC forecast paid search, including generative AI search, would remain flat across all scenarios.
In the severe scenario, global linear TV fell 7.3% compared to a 3.7% baseline decline, publishing contracted 8.5% against a 0.8% baseline dip, and cinema fell 4.0% against a baseline forecast of 6.3% growth.
Cinema and publishing are the least resilient channels in the dataset, according to WARC, with cinema advertising tied directly to leisure discretionary spending and theatrical attendance, both of which weaken sharply when consumer confidence falls and energy-linked transport costs rise.
Consumer sentiment is adding to the pressure.
"Purchasing power is up, but the consumer remains very concerned about affordability, economic outlook, and job security," said Dirk Van de Put, chairman and CEO at Mondelēz International.
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