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The advertising market has taken on a more confident and resilient outlook, with the latest media agency bookings showing a positive track.
The Guideline SMI numbers for May showing a dip of just 0.5% are expected to turn positive once late digital bookings are added.
Some industry analysts are now forecasting a full calendar year to show growth, albeit in low single digits.
Jane Combes, chief media partnerships officer, OMD Australia, said the result points to a market returning to a more normal investment pattern after election-related distortions, but advertiser demand remains resilient.
“Major cultural and sporting moments continue to be a powerful driver of spend, while strong growth in EV and hybrid investment highlights how quickly brands are adapting to changing consumer demand,” she said.
“While consumer sentiment remains below historic averages, recent improvements in confidence are encouraging.
“As we move into the second half, the key question is whether that momentum continues, with major retail moments such as Black Friday likely to provide an important boost.
“For brands, success will come from balancing always-on investment with the flexibility to capitalise on high-impact cultural moments as they emerge.
“Combining creativity with deep commercial intelligence allows brands to respond confidently to changing conditions and turn market volatility into a competitive advantage.”
Media analyst Steve Allen from Fusion Strategy said the result is a pleasant surprise but not quite a recovery, yet.
“As a consumer I had noticed…what seemed like quite a deluge of government advertising (no doubt to try to ameliorate the expected reaction to the broken promise federal budget," he said. “This government seems hooked on advertising.
“The month (May) is all but equal to last year and will surpass this to actual growth by 4% to 5% when late bookings and adjustments surface.
“What is also surprising is the forward pacing for both June and July. Both well ahead of past two to three year monthly patterns.
“To an extent to be expected, as right now we have the FIFA World Cup and to pretty much immediately follow, the Commonwealth Games. Both these increase Advertiser activity and boost advertising investment, by some tens of millions.
“The viewer audiences the Soccer World Cup on SBS is achieving (so far with Australia hanging in) is astonishing and beating all previous ratings figures.”
As SMI indicates, government advertising rose 60.8% for the month to $60.2 million.
Quite a few other sizable product categories saw growth.
However, Allen is cautious.
“This is not an emerging pattern of advertising growth,” he said. “Just momentary.
“Most other market and consumer conditions will bring this back to unpredictable and challenging conditions for the remainder of the year.
“This said, most probably our forecast of 2%-3% overall growth might …just might be bettered.”
Lewis Hearn, managing partner Havas Media, sees a return to more considered and deliberate media investment.
“Once last year's election cycle is removed, we're seeing advertisers across key categories lean back into growth with greater confidence, particularly in channels that can deliver both scale and measurable impact,” Hearn said.
“The strength in outdoor, cinema and video also reinforces that marketers are increasingly thinking about attention, context, and relevance, not just short-term reach.
“Major cultural moments like the FIFA World Cup create premium environments where brands can accelerate effectiveness, and we're seeing clients become more intentional about how they connect media investment to measurable business outcomes rather than chasing channels or reach in isolation.
“As confidence continues to stabilise, we expect media investment to focus on quality over quantity.
“Agencies that combine deep data intelligence with connected planning will be best placed to help clients identify where genuine growth opportunities exist, not simply where spend is increasing.”
Shai Luft, co-founder and COO, Bench Media, said May is probably the clearest read on the advertising market all year.
“The election distortions are behind us, yet the market is still down 0.5%. Given the tailwinds this month, that's a reminder that confidence remains fragile.
“Businesses are still navigating geopolitical uncertainty, stubborn inflation, higher living costs, and more cautious consumers, so every marketing dollar is under greater scrutiny than in years.
“What's interesting is where brands are still prepared to invest. The FIFA World Cup has driven demand into Streaming and premium video, while Outdoor and Cinema continue to outperform.
“That's not a coincidence. Brands are backing channels that build attention, create emotion and leave a lasting impression, rather than simply maximise reach.
“The lift in EV and hybrid advertising also feels timely. With fuel prices back in focus, it's another example of marketers leaning into moments where consumer relevance is strongest. The market isn't just becoming more selective about how much it spends, it's becoming smarter about where it spends.”
Adam Peruch, group investment director, dentsu, said the results point to a broadly stable media market despite continued economic and geopolitical pressure.
Year-to-date spend is down 1.11% to $3.4 billion. With late digital bookings still to be added, the result may improve further.
“In the context of weak consumer confidence, housing affordability pressure, inflation, interest rates, energy volatility and global uncertainty, this should be viewed as a relatively positive market signal,” he said.
“As the well-known advertising adage goes… ‘When times are good, you should advertise. When times are bad, you must advertise’.”
“Digital continues to consolidate its leadership position, reaching a record 48.28% share for the January to May period and $1.655 billion in spend, up 1.58 share points versus the same time last year. May-only share was softer than 2025, down 1.16 share points, although this may improve as late bookings are added.
“With most (TV) networks having limited success with the launch of new programs, there continues to be softness in the market.
“May spend fell below $190 million for the first time in the five-year analysis period, while January to May spend fell below $900 million.
“TV is now positioned in the mid-20% share range. As we head into the last quarter, as always, it will be important to get campaigns locked away earlier to take advantage of traditional strong end of year TV events and ratings.
Amy Carr, general manager - growth, Yango, said the mere 0.5% dip in ad spend feels like a collective sigh of relief.
“But we know the top-line numbers don't tell the whole story,” she said.
“Right now, Aussies are seeing their grocery bills go up, wincing at the petrol pump, and holding their breath when the rent or mortgage is due, which puts some crucial context around what we are seeing.
“When the household budget is squeezed, the overseas holiday may get canned, but we still need to have a bit of fun. People are simply finding it closer to home.
“This helps explain why cinema is up 22.6% on the back of a strong slate of blockbuster box office hits.
“We all need a break from reality, and we will happily grab some overpriced popcorn to get it.
“Combine that with outdoor ad spend jumping 14.3%, and the message for brands is clear: you need to show up in the physical spaces where Aussies actually are.
“We are also seeing practicality drive the numbers. Auto brand spends grew 11.3%, but the real kicker is that NEVs (Electric Vehicles/Hybrids) have more than doubled their spend.
“When fuel prices are this painful, buyers aren't just going green for the planet, they are evaluating long-term efficiency for their wallets.
“It is definitely an opportunity for auto brands to meet consumers where they are at the moment. With the influx of new-to-market brands, I don’t see this slowing down.
“More importantly, we have to keep our messaging empathetic. Flashy extravagance is out. Delivering real-world value and showing a deep understanding of the people behind the data is how advertisers will win moving further into the year.”
Brodie McMaster, performance strategy lead at Bonfire, said May’s data shows the market is not exactly booming, but it is steadier than the headline might suggest.
“Total spend was only 0.5% down, and that number will probably improve once the usual late social, search and programmatic bookings catch up,” McMaster said.
“Outdoor was the clear winner, up 14.3%, while cinema jumped 22.6%. That tells us advertisers are still happy to spend on big, attention-grabbing channels when there is a strong moment to build around.
“The World Cup is doing a fair bit of heavy lifting here, with SBS bookings nearly doubling and gambling spend also rising sharply.
“The bigger takeaway is that brands are not choosing between brand and performance in quite the same way they used to.
“The smarter ones are using outdoor, video and other high-reach channels to create demand, then relying on search, social and programmatic to pick that demand up and turn it into action.
“So while the market is still cautious, it is not frozen. Advertisers are spending where there is a clear reason to show up, and where the channel mix can do more than just chase the last click.”
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