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Ad spend has hit positive territory but don’t open the champagne just yet.
Guideline SMI data shows ad spend up 0.3% in June and the numbers will grow when late digital bookings are processed.
The result brings the six-month calendar year total to growth of 0.4% against the same period last year, with digital, outdoor, cinema and newspapers all in up for the year to date.
May has now been revised to 5.1% growth following the inclusion of late digital bookings, and a similar uplift is expected for June.
Shai Luft, co-founder and COO, Bench Media, said the numbers look marginally better but don’t start celebrating a recovery just yet.
He said the June numbers are a welcome improvement but the real test begins when the football fever ends, government spending plateaus and the market has to stand on its own.
“The FIFA World Cup kicked off halfway through the month, giving advertisers a rare global event around which to build campaigns,” he said.
“It provided an obvious boost to video, streaming and other channels that could capitalise on the attention around it. That momentum should continue into July, but major sporting events can make the market look healthier than it really is.
“Government advertising also surged, but the year-on-year comparison is doing some heavy lifting. June last year came immediately after the federal election, when the campaign tap had effectively been turned off.
“This year, government activity is back to more normal levels. That is good for media owners, but it is hardly evidence of a dramatic return in business confidence.
“Away from those tailwinds, marketers remain cautious. There is money in the market, but very little patience. Budgets are taking longer to approve, plans are being pulled apart more often and anything without a clear role is being cut.
“The pressure for immediate accountability is pushing more money towards channels that are easy to activate and measure. But what is easiest to measure is not always what is most effective.
“The risk is that marketers become so focused on proving this month’s return that they underinvest in creating next year’s demand.
Amy Dascanio, managing director, Enigma Media, said the June result confirms the market was never pulling back as sharply as the headlines suggested.
“Strip out last year’s election spend and it looks more like a reset than a downturn,” she said.
“Clients are still spending, but they’re being far more selective about where every dollar goes.
“Investment is following attention, accountability, and flexibility, which is why we’re seeing continued growth across the broader digital ecosystem from streaming and connected screens to programmatic outdoor.
“Cost-of-living pressures and economic uncertainty will keep brands cautious, but going quiet isn’t the answer.
“When people are spending less and thinking harder about every purchase, being visible and trusted matters even more, particularly as AI changes how people search for and discover brands.
“Brands need to buy smarter and invest in environments that genuinely capture attention, rather than simply chasing the cheapest reach or lowest CPM. The FIFA World Cup is a great example. Sport still has a unique ability to create major cultural moments and bring people together at scale.
“All the chatter about digital growth doesn’t mean traditional channels are dead. It means we need to think more carefully about how audiences move through their day, across different screens and environments. That takes smarter planning and less reliance on automation to uncover genuine growth opportunities.
“There’s still plenty of value and strong ROI across traditional media, we just need to look beyond the lowest CPM to find it.”
Gino Hadiutomo, senior director, media, Sparro by Brainlabs, is cautiously optimistic.
“We may think that we’re seeing a recovery, but the evidence points towards the positive trend being a byproduct of the cost-of-living crisis,” he said.
“The growth is coming from relief-based industries, such as food and produce, wealth management, and insurance, last month.
“I also don’t think the question is whether money is leaving advertising or not - it’s what advertising it is going to.
“Many advertisers are unfortunately focusing on short-term, margin-squeezing and AI-driven self-serve activities.
“We know that this is unsustainable, but it is also the reality for many anxious marketing managers who are pressured to meet their KPIs in this tough market.
“What's encouraging is the growth sitting in brand-building channels. It suggests some genuine appetite for long-term strategy that shapes genuine and steady connections between brands and their customers.”
Brodie McMaster, performance strategy lead, Bonfire, said June is a positive signal but she doesn’t see a full confidence reset just yet.
“A 0.3% lift is good news, but feels less like the market has hit the accelerator, and more like it’s stopped stalling at the lights,” she said.
“The World Cup has clearly given advertisers something strong to build around, especially with streaming video up 26.4% in June.
“That is the power of a major cultural moment: it gives brands a clear reason to show up, and can make the market look a little more composed than it probably feels underneath.
“The bigger test is what happens once that moment drops away. Bottom-of-funnel spend is under more scrutiny as CPMs and CPCs rise, consideration journeys get longer, and users do more of their research before they ever click.
“Brands cannot just stand at the checkout waiting for customers who were never put in the mood to buy. The ones in a stronger position will be those still investing earlier in the journey, so their performance channels have something meaningful to convert.”
Nick Murdoch, Managing Partner, Yango the market remains very competitive despite the encouraging signs.
“Economic growth is subdued, marketing budgets continue to be highly scrutinised and every opportunity is hard fought,” he said.
“Client expectations have moved beyond media buying and we've seen the market looking for help to solve broader business problems.
“Whether that's mapping new consumer buying journeys, GEO, customer acquisition or measurement.
“Clients are looking for partners who can create commercial advantage, not just deliver campaigns. It’s a tight market.”
Alfie Lagos, director and founder, Lexlab, said SMI is the best read on the agency market but it pays to be precise about what that means.
“It captures about 98% of media agency booked spend, which is a smaller universe than the market,” he said.
“Agency bookings ran to about $9 billion last financial year. IAB and PwC put internet advertising alone at $18.4 billion in calendar 2025, so a large share of Australian ad spend never touches an agency booking system.
“Lexlab sits outside this pool, so what we're seeing is more cautious than the headline suggests.
“Several of our larger agency partners have clients trimming spend while the market supposedly recovers. The sentiment at the other end of town looks much the same.
“The obvious tilt towards digital reads to me as a market leaning harder into what it believes is 'measurable' performance-based media, tempting for a CMO when measuring outcomes is the phrase everyone's getting triple points for at the moment.”
Ewelina Jones, head of Investment, dentsu, said demand was not due to a narrow category, rather a broad increase across many.
Government advertising showed the largest June growth (+50.1%), followed by +17.6% for Food, Produce & Dairy.
Restaurants was the next largest growth category. While Automotive brands continued their increase (+6.6%) it was not to the steep increases previously seen (April +34%).
“On specific channel performance, no surprise to see Digital (+5.%) and OOH (+6.3% YoY) calendar year-to-date.
“Within OOH, interesting to note growth across the majority of sub-types (excluding aviation), of particular note Billboards +6.2% growth on what is the largest sub-type within the channel,” Jones said.
“Programmatic outdoor delivered the largest calendar year-to-date growth of +29.7%, however off a significantly smaller base.
“Consumers want escapism and quality content, the strong content slate Cinema is delivering is certainly translating to growth (+12.9% calendar year-to-date).
“This strong momentum through the end of the financial year was further supported by increased engagement around major cultural events, including the FIFA World Cup.
“SBS investment into the FIFA World Cup paid off, with June investment +278% on Linear (main) SBS and an incredible +1951% across digital.
“In a fragmented market, it remains more important than ever to capture consumer attention, and these moments deliver an audience for brands.
“While SBS lived the highs of this incredible tournament, overall Broadcast Television slipped -9% vs June 2025.”
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