Meta will surpass Google in total digital advertising revenue in 2026, marking the first time the social media giant has led the market, according to forecasts by Emarketer.
Meta is projected to reach $US243.46 billion in net worldwide ad revenue this year, ahead of Google's $239.54 billion.
In 2025, Google led with $214.06 billion to Meta's $196.17 billion.
Meta's share of worldwide digital ad spending will reach 26.8% in 2026, overtaking Google's 26.4%.
Meta's worldwide growth rate is forecast to accelerate to 24.1% in 2026, up from 22.1% in 2025, while Google's growth rate holds steady at 11.9%.
"Meta's growth is not coming from just one source," said Zach Goldner, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer.
"Tools like its Advantage+, AI-generated ad creatives, and its broader automation stack are improving performance across both Facebook and Instagram, with Reels being a big beneficiary.
“As a result, advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that's pulling more ad dollars onto the platform."
In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated, according to Max Willens, principal analyst at Emarketer.
“Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media," he said. "It has carefully built and defended the advantages it has in all three areas.”
Amazon ranked third, with worldwide ad revenue forecast to grow to $82.07 billion in 2026 from $68.64 billion in 2025, representing 9% of global digital ad spending.
Together the three platforms will account for 62.3% of total worldwide digital ad spending in 2026.
Emarketer noted the forecast was completed before recent court rulings against Meta and YouTube, and said the verdicts were unlikely to have a material impact as such cases take years to resolve through appeals.
Drew Spink, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer said the consolidation of digital ad dollars around Google, Meta, and Amazon reflects a compounding advantage of first-party data, AI integrations, and audience reach.
“Smaller platforms and traditional media can’t replicate these capabilities in comparable cost or speed and, as a result, incremental budgets continue to flow in that direction," Spink said.
Meta Australia and New Zealand continues to see strong momentum locally.
"We’re focused on helping advertisers and agencies of all sizes use our products and services to drive growth, both at home and in international markets," said Will Easton, vice president Meta Australia and New Zealand
“As marketers’ needs evolve, we’re investing in the tools that help businesses reach the right customers, measure what works, and turn performance into long-term brand value across our platforms.
"We’ll keep working closely with our partners across ANZ to help them unlock new opportunities and deliver results.”
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