The focus for ROI is now squarely on business outcomes.
Media agencies are sharpening their focus on data-driven certainty as rising costs and economic pressures force a rethink on short-termism and ROI.
The result is a decisive shift towards digital channels that offer measurable impact, with greater investment in AI, automation and first-party data strategies, and a retreat from underperforming media.
“In times of economic uncertainty, we yearn for control,” said chief planning and connections officer at Spark Foundry, Sophie Langton.
“But the most effective campaigns are built on data-driven certainty. Where there is certainty, agencies have the confidence to really swing for the fences with big original thinking that has the potential to stretch returns.”
Langton said analytics teams are now “integral” to ensuring measurement and optimisation infrastructure is in place.
“It’s not enough to simply hit performance targets, agencies must build the confidence to aim higher by creating a system of certainty through data and measurement,” she said.
However, Langton warned against short-termism becoming the dominant lens through which performance is judged.
“Performance-led short-term planning is focused on converting existing demand while ignoring the need to generate future prospects,” she said.
“The risk is that short-term ROI will look great, but long-term ROI will be harder to maintain as the cost of acquisition increases due to fewer prospects.”
Co-Founder of Orange Line, David Klein, agreed.
“The temptation to chase immediate returns is real, but it’s often short sighted. Smart agencies are helping clients understand that top-of-funnel investment can lower customer acquisition costs over time,” he said.
Langton echoed the sentiment, noting that short-term wins must be balanced with long-term brand building.
“Think of it like going to the fridge when you’re hungry and eating everything inside,” she said.
“Sure, you’re full now, but you’ve left nothing for next time. Brands need to build future demand to make acquisition tactics more efficient and effective.”
Klein said the role of precision media has evolved beyond impressions and click-throughs.
“Precision media is about turning business goals into detailed media targets,” he said.
Performance-led planning is also being redefined.
“All planning should be performance-led, measured against the metrics the campaign is intended to shift,” said Langton.
“It shouldn’t be thought about differently to ‘traditional’ media planning, the difference is in how tightly media decisions are tied to business outcomes.
“However, performance-led planning can often be misinterpreted as fixating only on short-term returns,” she said.
“The laws of brand growth and marketing science show it’s not a matter of either/or, but both. Brands require a combination of long-term brand building and short-term acquisition drivers.”
Klein reinforced the point.
“Unlike traditional media planning, which focuses on reach or CPMs, this approach links media decisions directly to revenue and acquisition metrics,” he said.
Meanwhile, chief analytics officer at IPG Mediabrands, Adam Krass, said the focus for ROI is now squarely on business outcomes.
“Efficiency alone isn’t enough, media spend must drive measurable business outcomes. We’ve moved from outputs like CPMs to inputs like sales, acquisitions and market share,” he said.
He added that consumer attention is shifting fast, with platforms like TikTok, SVOD services and even ChatGPT now outperforming traditional media in terms of time spent and influence on purchase decisions.
“Legacy reliance on last-click search is failing to reflect where purchase influence actually happens. Precision media today means targeting where attention really is,” he said.
Agencies are also recalibrating how ROI is defined in a high-cost environment.
“ROI is a measure of effectiveness, not efficiency,” said Langton.
“The cost of media is a significant input, but not the only one. Brands are more likely to be purchased when they come to mind in buying situations.
“That means we are in the memory business. Memory encoding requires a quality of exposure, both in the medium and the message.”
Krass agreed, saying it is no longer just about the lowest CPA.
“The focus has moved to incrementality and sustainability. Clients are now evaluating ROI in context, adjusted for seasonality, competition, and base demand,” he said.
Meanwhile, as AI and cloud computing become more accessible, the shift from gut-feel to data-led decision-making is accelerating.
“AI is helping us move from reactive reporting to forward-looking planning,” said Klein.
“In eCommerce campaigns, it’s helping us close longtail content gaps and forecast customer lifetime value before campaigns even launch.”
Krass said clients are also becoming more sophisticated.
“They’re asking deeper questions about cross-channel ROI, elasticity and investment protection,” he said.
“But the most powerful outcomes happen when agencies and clients challenge assumptions together and use analytics as a shared language for strategic decisions.”
As budgets tighten, all three experts emphasise that media is no longer just a marketing tool, it’s a growth engine.
“Marketing isn’t a cost centre. With the right balance of long and short-term thinking, it’s a driver of real, measurable returns,” said Langton.
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