GroupM has raised its ad spend forecasts in the US, the world’s largest advertising market, for a second time in three months as brands come back hard following the 2020 pandemic year.
The media investment company now expects 22% growth in ad revenue during 2021, up from the 15% forecast in April (which was an upgrade from a previous 12% expectation).
The forecast is well ahead of Magna which estimates 15% ad spend growth for the US in 2021.
Significantly, GroupM expects 2021 advertising spending to be nearly 15% higher than in 2019, returning the market to a level better than before COVID-19.
“Advertising growth for the year is far exceeding previous expectations, leading to a revision of our forecasts for this year and beyond,” says GroupM.
“We didn’t fully appreciate just how much the economy and advertising market were heating up.”
On digital spend, GroupM expects digital advertising (excluding political advertising) to grow by 33% in 2021, building on last year’s 10% rate of expansion.
At that growth rate, digital will account for 57% of all advertising in the US. And by 2026, digital advertising will make up 69% of the industry.
Television advertising is forecast to remain relatively stable following a year of recovery-driven growth.
For 2021, TV (including connected) advertising will grow by 8.7%, a full recovery from 2020’s 6.9% fall.
Beyond 2021, GroupM expects flat trends, with incremental shifts out of television by large traditional brands offset by incremental spending by newer ones.
In the UK, GroupM again expects advertising growth of 24% in 2021.
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