GroupM forecasts 2024 ad spend growth at just 1% in Australia

Chris Pash
By Chris Pash | 12 June 2024
Credit: Frames For Your Heart via Unsplash

Advertising spend in Australia will grow by a modest 1.1% in 2024, according to the latest analysis by GroupM.

The prediction is only slightly improved from the forecasts by the media agency group in December of 0.9% growth this year in Australia from just 0.2% in 2023.

The latest from GroupM compares to dentsu which sees Australian ad spend growing 1.8% in 2024 (versus –0.8% in 2023) to $US13 billion.

GroupM estimates global advertising revenue will grow 7.8% this year to $989.8 billion, well ahead of Australia. 

“Economic uncertainty is front of mind for consumers, advertisers and politicians and continues to cast a shadow in Australia for the year ahead, but there are bright spots in the landscape," said Melissa Hey, GroupM Australia & New Zealand chief investment officer.

"Despite the economic challenges it’s positive to see growth in the year ahead. Based on the current economic conditions, we’re expecting overall ad revenue to increase 1.1% across 2024 to $23.5 billion before stronger growth returns in 2025.

"Retail Media is seeing accelerated growth, solidifying its position as a primary growth engine for brands, podcasts and streaming continue to drive growth in Audio, while the decline of linear TV is slowing.”

Australian forecasts:

  • Digital biddable media represents 76% of ad spend in 2024 and search has the biggest share 37% of digital media.
  • Retail media is projected to increase by 28.6% in 2024 reaching $1.162 billion, solidifying its position as a primary growth engine for brands.
  • Linear TV is forecast to fall 13.3%  to $2.85 billion. Video-on-demand will see growth of 15.3%, balancing out to see total TV dip by 9.5% to $3.43b.
  • Digital OOH now represents 75% of all outdoor revenue, and growth across the channel is forecast for 2024 at $1.246b (+7.3%). There is still under 10% of inventory traded programmatically.
  • The 2024 forecast for Cinema has been downgraded to +2.6% to reach $117m.
  • The overall audio landscape is expected to remain relatively flat at -0.1% ($ 1.237bn) while digital audio is projected to achieve double-digit growth with Digital Audio (inc x Podcasts and Streaming) expected to rise 16.4%.

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