Credit: Joey Huang via Unsplash
Forecasters are predicting growth in advertising spend in Australia this year but are divided on whether this will be better than 2025.
Data from media agency bookings, aggregated by Guideline SMI, showed a sharp softening of the market in the last quarter of 2025.
The market fell 14.7% in October which is the definition of "extremely cautious” as Guideline SMI described it.
But ahead are some big sporting events and most forecasters see growth, in some for in 2026.
WPP Media puts Australia at 6.5% in 2026, up from 5.2% in 2025.
Dentsu, however, sees a slowing to 4.1% in Australia, from 4.5% last year. This is below the global average which is forecast to rise by 5.1% in 2026, passing the $1 trillion ($1.04 trillion) mark for the first time, despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
Melissa Hey, chief investment officer, WPP Media ANZ, is upbeat
“The Australian advertising market has demonstrated resilience and adaptability,” she says. But where is the growth coming from?” she says.
The market continues its relentless march into digital from traditional linear and this change had allowed smaller businesses to put their ad cash directly into the system.
“Advertising is no longer the domain of big brands alone. Small businesses are driving this surge,” says Hey.
“While their spend is modest, the sheer amount of them using social and search platforms as their core marketing channel is shifting the dial as they compete for customers in a cluttered landscape.”
Hey says pure-play internet now accounts for 75.9% of total ad revenue, and projections indicate this will continue to climb, which will lead to more audience first strategies.
Retail media, with its intimate customer data gathered at the cash register, also is growing.
“We will see retail media continue to fuel performance planning and have the biggest increase of share of investment over the next five years.”
Global events will also kick along ad spend.
“If you’re looking for positive news about the advertising market, consider what events are on,” says Ben Willee, executive director - media and data at Spinach.
“There was a time when advertisers saved up for big events, and in 2026, we have the Winter Olympics, Soccer World Cup, Rugby World Cup and Commonwealth Games. “I’d love to say they will be market multipliers, but I think that’s unlikely.
Senior industry analyst Steve Allen, at Pearman Media, describes 2025 as lumpy, and unpredictable month to month, a “bastard” of a year..
He says it’s hard to see how the 2026 media markets (putting digital to one side) will grow beyond Pearman's forecast for 2025 of +2.57%
However, Allen believes the turmoil in the main media revenue markets will be short lived and not a major correction.
“The fundamentals and dynamics of the Australian consumer have not materially changed,” he says.
“Cautious though they are, the next year should see them build confidence and spending.”
WPP Media’s Australia forecasts:
- Australian advertising market to grow 5.2% to AUD $28.9 billion in 2025, and accelerate to 6.5% in 2026 to AUD $30.7 billion.
- This outpaces the broader economy, with GDP growth projected at just 1.8% in mid-2025
- Pure-play internet advertising is 75.9% of total ad revenue, expected to climb to 83.5% by 2030.
- Retail Media is the fastest-growing channel: forecast to expand 28.1% in 2025 and 24.4% in 2026
- Retail media will surpass total TV ad revenue for the first time in 2027—a major industry milestone.
- Search Advertising will grow 10.2% in 2025 and 9.1% in 2026 maintaining a 23% share of total ad revenue. Growth is driven by AI-powered search optimisation and new ad formats.
- TV & streaming ad revenue will fall -8.7% in 2025 and another -5.1% in 2026
- Audio ad revenue (inc Digital & Podcasts) up 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026; digital audio (including podcasts) is offsetting radio declines.
- Print continues to decline: newspaper ad revenue down 17.4% in 2025 and 9.1% in 2026; magazines down 2.9% and 2.3%.
- Out-of-home (OOH) advertising will grow 8.2% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026
- Cinema ad revenue to grow 5.2% in 2025; remains a niche, premium environment.
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