Dentsu Aegis Network (DAN) has released its biannual forecast that points to a more positive 2018 for global advertising expenditure than previously expected, with growth in Australia expected across most channels.
For Australia, the advertising and digital communications group has forecast ad spend to grow 2.8% this year to reach $15.7 billion, up from 2.3% last year. Digital continues to hold the largest share of total spend by channel, and is predicted to grow 6.1% in the year ahead locally, representing a 48% share of the total media spend. OOH is predicted to post the largest YOY growth at 7.0%, with cinema expected to grow at 5.8%.
Globally, the group predicts modest growth in ad spend from 3.3% last year to 3.9% in 2018, amounting to US$613.5 billion, offering a “more positive outlook”. Dentsu Aegis sees contribution to new global ad dollars this year driven particularly by the US and China, to account for around one third and one quarter of new growth, respectively.
“Digital continues to drive growth and is forecast to increase by 12.6% - over three times the rate of all media in 2018,” the network says.
“Video growth on mobile-first social platforms will be the biggest driver for digital with video (24.6%), mobile (23.3%) and social media (21.6%) all seeing the highest increases in 2018," the report says.
“Digital overtakes TV for the first time this year and will account for 38.4% of total ad spend versus 35.5% for TV, as the shift towards online video, subscriber video-on-demand and catch-up services continues.
Dentsu Aegis says paid search’s share of global spend is projected to overtake print (newspaper and magazine) spend for the first time in 2018. Mobile ad spend is forecast to represent a quarter of global ad spend (25.2%) in 2018, exceeding the previous prediction of 24.8%.
TV ad spend is forecast to return to modest growth of 1.2% in 2018, following a decline in spend of -0.7% in 2017, with growth driven by sporting and political events. It is expected to continue on a positive growth trajectory (1.1% in 2019), driven by new tech developments such as Addressable TV and Connected TV, Dentsu Aegis says.
Programmatic ad spend is expected to grow by 23.2% in 2018 and 19.1% in 2019 as the ability to consolidate programmatic buying strategies across formats and devices continues to be an opportunity for advertisers to reach the most valuable audiences at scale.
Traditional media spend is forecast to decline in 2018 by -0.5% and by -0.4% in 2019. Print spend is expected to continue to decline in 2018 and 2019, but the rates of decline will not be as high as in recent years. All other media types are expected to show moderate growth driven by technological innovations e.g. digital OOH, digital radio and digital cinema.
You can read the full report here.
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