The latest numbers from aggregated media agency bookings are ugly, according to Ben Willee, executive director at Spinach.
“But they are not the apocalypse either,” he said.
Australia’s advertising market ended 2025 softer, with December ad spend down 9.2%. The Guideline SMI data shows full year ad spend down 2% overall, with the 1.6% market growth in the first six months of the year, buoyed by the federal election, wiped out in the second half with a 5.2% fall.
“This is not advertisers falling out of love with advertising, it is advertisers sitting on their hands, watching interest rates, consumers and governments like hawks, wallets clutched tightly," Willee told AdNews.
“Budgets have not vanished, they have shortened, fragmented and become brutally accountable, which explains why brand channels can wobble while anything promising flexibility, performance or a neat spreadsheet survives.
“The real risk right now is not spending less, it is going into a defensive crouch, turning the volume down, and then acting surprised when the brands that kept their foot on the accelerator drive past waving.”
Media analyst Steve Allen at Pearman said the numbers compare a non-Summer Olympics year with an Olympics year, and that is worth between 1% to 2% of annual ad revenue.
And there was also a federal election, pumping up ad expenditure in the second half of 2024, making it higher than it might normally have been.
“Thus making year on year comparison tougher, a higher hurdle rate,” Allen said.
“Then we have the biggest detrimental occurrences: cost of living (crisis); prevailing economic conditions; global unrest and uncertainty, particularly in the case of USA; and (potential) of trade wars
“We always said, and forecast, that 2025 was going to be a tough and somewhat unpredictable year.
“Thus, our prediction for 2025 is more of the same (so-to-speak). No, or little, relief from these torrid media market conditions. At best +2%-3% overall growth, and excluding Digital, no growth -1% to -2%.
“Once again, the only media likely to grow (aside from digital, though this well off is high growth) are outdoor and radio (plus of course cinema but this only under 1% of total market).
“We think TV will make a slight recovery, in as much as it will not be as great a decline as experienced in the past 2 years.
“A difficult, volatile and challenging year. Survival of the fittest.”
Lee Stephens, executive chair, Meerkat, said there is no secret why the second half of the year has been one of the most challenging since COVID.
“Retail and grocery categories are the key engine rooms of media growth in Australia,” he said.
“A fall across these two sectors of 19% is unrecoverable, despite the impressive performance of DOOH and cinema throughout 2025.
“December’s retail sector decline is almost certainly affected by the impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales which now spread retail sales budgets from early- November to Boxing Day. There is only so much to go around.
“A soft month in December, combined with a tough second half clearly highlights structural changes to the media market.
“Traditional magazine and print titles are in permanent decline and are desperately trying to reshape their businesses. Digital TV and video are in their ascendancy, and the growth cycle is just beginning.
“The mystery of 2025 has been why digital news titles have not performed better in 2025. “News Limited, for example, has one of the largest first party media targeting products in Australia. It just hasn’t been able to drive the message home to advertisers in the way it deserves.”
Nick Murdoch, managing partner, Yango, said the back half of last year was very, very soft, according to SMI data.
“That’s putting it nicely,” he said.
“While I have no doubt the market is sluggish, I’m beginning to question if SMI is only measuring declining, legacy businesses and missing some of the growing pockets.
“Legacy, local media companies are going backwards and consolidating while the market resizes itself, and many of the large agency groups are battling with the same dynamic.
“On the other hand, most indie media agency spend is not measured and what about brand teams spending direct?
“It seems to me that’s where much of the growth is, so maybe the numbers are not representing the full picture?
“It still might be somewhat grim out there, pretty sure it is, but hopefully not as bad as the numbers are indicating.”
Ben Mulcahy, commercial director, 100% Digital, said advertising needs to work harder, providing strong short-term ROI.
“We are seeing less enthusiasm for branding channels but a big appetite for the end-of-funnel digital channels that provide fast leads and sales,” he said. “Channels with quick win trackable accountability.”
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