Credit: Paul Harris via Unsplash
The latest aggregated media agency booking numbers, showing a soft advertising market starting to wobble, is more about feeling pressure than justifying panic.
Media agency insiders urge marketers of brands to dive into, and not out, of the market, to take advantage of the deals which follow a weak market.
“The market has fallen a massive 14.7% in October, which is the advertising equivalent of hitting a pothole so deep it rearranges your dental work,” said Ben Willee, executive director - media and data at Spinach:
“One more month of negative growth, and we are in a technical advertising recession.
“Tough times are a very good opportunity for building brands because media gets cheap and everyone else panics and hides in discounting, which leaves the smart marketers most of the stage to themselves.
“The one certainty is that the market will eventually get better, and marketers need to ask themselves if they really took advantage while they could.”
Shai Luft, co-founder at Bench Media, said the October numbers confirm the ad market isn’t just cautious, it’s soft.
And the headline +0.2% calendar year to date growth is misleading.
“With inflation at 3.8%, the market is contracting in real terms, and the only reason the year is even slightly positive is because the federal election temporarily inflated March and April,” he said. “Without that stimulus, 2025 would be materially down.
“For marketers, the risk is interpreting the softness as a cue to pause. In reality, quieter markets offer cheaper media inventory, less clutter and a chance to out-maneuver competitors.
“When confidence returns, the gains go to those who stayed visible.”
Elise Hedley-Dale, founder and media director, Media Words, said October looks rough on paper — a 14.7% drop will do that — but this isn’t the whole market falling over.
“It’s a handful of big categories hitting pause, mainly government and food. That’s pressure, not panic,” said Hedley-Dale.
“The rest of the market isn’t tapping out. Insurance is up. Outdoor is holding. Digital is doing what digital does — catching the last minute decisions. Even cinema and magazines are ticking up. So no, advertisers haven’t lost faith in media. They’re just being pickier about where they spend.
“As we head into the end of the year, the real split is simple: brands going quiet, and brands staying visible while everyone else disappears. And that’s the opportunity. When the noise drops, showing up matters more, not less.
“Right now, many brands are confusing silence with safety. If you can stay present while others go quiet, you’re already setting yourself up to win next year.”
Phil McDonald, CEO at BCM, said Australian media consumption habits continue to fragment at an unprecedented speed and many of these percentage decreases reflect that.
“With several media owner mergers in process in Australia, this uncertainty and unpredictability is influencing media investment sentiment and confidence,” he said.
‘Relationships are shifting and changing as personnel changes in media companies have reached a rate never seen before.
“Many advertisers are also moving marketing investments to branded content and generating earned media, so their brand shows up in the new search environment that has been created by the substantial drop in Google searches and the rapid rise of AI-powered search platforms.”
Georga Payne, chief investment officer, Woolworths Group, Carat, a dentsu company, said the October SMI results prove the market can change swiftly and previously optimistic forecasts for a strong December quarter will be downgraded.
“The recent unexpected spike in inflation, potential for interest rate increases, plus other market forces, are generally causing uncertainty,” she said.
‘Earlier this year we were seeing exceptional growth in OOH of +20%, and now in decline of -6%.
“The trends are not the same for all client categories, with some far more optimistic influencing growth and investment mix.
“Retail remains the largest ad spender with fairly flat ad spend whereas Insurance, Travel and Banking are up double digits. Food/Produce/Dairy and Government spend are back.
“With exception of strong demand in Sport as seen with sold out Ashes season, demand for FIFA, continued growth in AFL/NRL as well as other highly integrated tentpoles, large format OOH and other premium formats, we expect to see a continued buyer’s market early into next year.
“Improved measurement should see continued growth in BVOD and SVOD, with Love Island,
“Big Brother, MAFS providing the ability to reach younger audiences.
“Overall, increased competition for revenue and a short market, will provide opportunity and value for our clients. Those that invest will reap the benefits.”
Nick Murdoch, managing partner at Yango, cautions against panic:
So far this financial year, from July to October, SMI numbers look like this: July -12.2%, August -8%, September -10.4% and now October -14.7%.
“In fact, in July after a -12.2% drop YOY, I commented that although a -12.2% drop in total ad spend is significant,” he said. “There are some extenuating circumstances, so let's not panic.
“So I guess it’s time to start worrying. If advertising is the canary in the coal mine of the economy as many have claimed in the past, we could be in for a tough 2026.
“However, today I’m choosing positivity, and am backing the resilience of the broader Australian economy as well as our industry, to rally and hold firm. There are categories doing well, so there is definitely still opportunity to be found.”
Hatched CEO Stephen Fisher and CCO Adrian Roeling see October’s SMI numbers as a useful view of channel-level investment trends, but say they aren’t a proxy for total ad market growth.
“We’re seeing something different at Hatched, and speaking to other indie agencies, we’re hearing the same thing: a lot more confidence, positivity and growth than SMI figures reflect,” they said.
“SMI doesn't capture the whole picture of indie or direct spend. We can only assume a portion of investment sits outside of SMI’s line of sight, including direct clients, in-house and performance spend managed directly or by independent agencies.
“Granted, some of those deals do transact through holding companies – particularly when it comes to broadcast media – but there remains a large chunk of investment that goes directly to publishers and platforms.
“In addition, an increasing number of agencies are now transacting and managing finances directly via platforms rather than through Mediaocean, meaning significant volumes of legitimate media spend are not going to be picked up by SMI.
“This isn’t about diminishing the value of SMI. It’s a great tool for measuring shifts in channel allocation and trends, we're just wary of it being positioned as representative of the total industry, given the shifts in where and how spend is occurring.
“It should be possible to get a more complete picture, as an industry, through some kind of standardised reporting ecosystem, where agencies and tech platforms collaborate with SMI to integrate media expenditure data more comprehensively.
“Fundamentally, headlines like we’ve seen this week on the October numbers are misleading since we're not seeing the entire market picture.
“From where we are sitting, the outlook for the advertising market is much more positive than SMI figures alone suggest.
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