The advertising market is cautious, fickle and fragile with a dash of volatility, according to industry insiders.
Guideline SMI data, which measures media agency bookings, shows a fall of 10.4% in September, with large dips across Food/Produce/Dairy, Government and Toiletries/Cosmetics.
“The market remains largely infected with a high degree of uncertainty which in turn is marketers either delaying campaign launches resulting in or reducing the size of their campaigns,’’ said Guideline SMI APAC managing director Jane Ractliffe .
Lee Stephens, executive chair at Meerkat Media, said September media activity is historically fickle with the majority of marketers concentrating on the final quarter.
“However, this September performance is especially tough,” he said.
“With Food/Produce/Dairy and Toiletries/Cosmetics expenditure both down more than 20% and Insurance and Banking media growth both up, it paints a very clear picture of consumer sentiment and advertiser response.
“The latest ABS data show a 24% increase of home loan borrowers looking to refinance with another bank and a 30% increase of borrowers pressing their banks for a better deal. “Similarly, with insurance premiums growing up to 18% from 2024, these sectors are taking advantage of potential high churn rates as consumers are open to changing suppliers.
“All major industry research shows a tightening of consumer discretionary spending across all of 2024 and 2025 and this long-term sentiment is playing out in SMI’s September results. “Fewer or scaled back campaigns within Food and Cosmetics is an indication these advertisers have had time for many months outside essential items.
“Outside digital video, the results are all terrible looking at September in isolation. Across the entire year and the significant success of digital video and DOOH growth, the Australian media industry is always resilient. That doesn’t mean all media channels will be winners.”
Ros Allison, head of product & innovation, MAGNA, said the market is somewhat fragile. “There's tension in the usual economic and consumer indicators, and global clients particularly vulnerable to geopolitical and tariff uncertainty,” Allison said.
“That said, September SMI reporting will settle well ahead of the current position once all spends are in.
“We expect OOH including programmatic to be up 10% for Q3, down from the highs of previous quarters, but still in strong positive territory.
“Strong growth for SMI / agency spends in BVOD and streaming audio and podcasting will close the gap on linear declines for TV & radio for the quarter. And we've seen stable audiences bringing good efficiency to linear TV and radio spends delivering good outcomes for advertisers.”
Vera Manalac, group investment director, iProspect, a dentsu company, said September’s 10.4% drop in ad spend will have agencies asking the question: “Is the market suffering or is this just a response to a record breaking September last year?”
“As media buyers, we’re used to navigating volatility, but the September 2025 data reminds us how nuanced the landscape has become and how important context is,” said Manalac.
“We know that any Olympic or major event period can skew YoY comparisons, so while it’s tempting to see this as a market retreating, if we look at the data more closely we see a more strategic story emerging.
“Despite the broader downturn, linear TV has shown resilience. Metropolitan TV was down just 3.9%, outperforming all other major media sectors including Outdoor (-15.8%), Radio (-16%), and even Digital (temporarily at -8.6% until late bookings arrive).
“This is no accident. In a year marked by contracting marketing spends and cautious marketers, at iPROSPECT, we’ve seen that TV sponsorships provide a trusted and reliable platform for brand visibility and audience engagement.
“More and more of our clients are seeing the value in integrating in big cultural moments and with marketing spend tightening, we expect this trend to continue.
“Streaming video also posted a solid 9% growth, reinforcing the value of premium video environments even within the digital ecosystem.
The steep declines in Food, Produce, Dairy, Government, and Toiletries/Cosmetics each down more than 20% accounted for nearly half of the market’s total dollar decline. These categories are traditionally heavy users in mass media and their pullback in spend could signal a reassessment of their investment strategies.
“Retail (+1.8%), Insurance (+7.2%), and Banking (+0.9%) showed modest growth, suggesting that essential services and consumer staples are still leaning into media to maintain share. For investment leads, this is a cue to reassess category weightings and lean into channels showing resilience or the need to identify channels where they can gain cut through.
“While some may interpret this month’s results as a story of decline, there are also signs of resilience. Cinema’s up. Streaming’s up. And late programmatic bookings are still to land. The September quarter may be soft, but the forward bookings for November suggest momentum is building.
“At iPROSPECT, we think it’s important to consider things contextually and not just wait for the market to rebound. We are helping our clients capitalise on softer market periods by constantly find ways to innovate in channels and doubling down on channels that deliver attention, trust, and outcomes.”
Justin Ladmore, chief media officer & partner, Enigma, said he was surprised by the September SMI results, particularly given the noticeable uptick in client activity as brands lay the groundwork for what’s shaping up to be a strong Q4.
“This is also shown in the forward-bookings highlighted in the SMI report,” he said.
“The September dip is in comparison to last year’s highest ad spend month, when major Government and FMCG campaigns were in market but absent this year.
“That said, there are encouraging signs, with linear TV proving resilient and video investment up 9%, demonstrating advertisers’ continued appetite for premium video environments, which is definitely a trend we’re also seeing across our client base.
“We’re confident Q4 spend will rebound strongly.”
Amy Carr, general manager - growth, Yango, said the numbers for September confirm that caution is about.
“However, decline isn't uniform, concentrating primarily in the Food/Produce/Dairy, Government, and Toiletries/Cosmetics categories, with green shoots existing in other categories,” Carr said.
“These conditions are fertile ground for strategic, growth-minded advertisers to accelerate, not retreat. It is proven that brands that maintain or increase ad investment during downturns often emerge stronger, with higher long-term sales growth and greater market share. The current environment is a rare, time-sensitive buyer's market.
“With a chunk of the market pulling back, the competitive "noise" is reduced, and the costs are often more favourable, allowing brands that maintain or selectively increase investment to secure a higher share of voice, achieving greater impact for the same or less money.
“Our advice for clients. Be present, be smart about channel selection, with the upside of being able to increase efficiency.
“Don't go dark; go bold. This period of caution is the market's invitation to accelerate growth and capture long-term market share.”
Sam Boardman, director, Vonnimedia, said advertisers are spending where their customers are, which is digital.
“When budgets are tight and every dollar needs to show impact, we see more rational buying behaviour and more ingenuity,” said Boardman.
“The simple truth is that people now spend more time consuming in the digital world than anywhere else, and the results are proving that.”
Have something to say on this? Share your views in the comments section below. Or if you have a news story or tip-off, drop us a line at adnews@yaffa.com.au
Sign up to the AdNews newsletter, like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter for breaking stories and campaigns throughout the day.