Mediabrands' market intelligence and investment division MagnaGlobal has downgraded its market forecast for 2012, predicting an overall decline in ad revenue of 1.3% but saying online growth will be even greater than expected.
While the group had originally predicted growth of 1.5%, weaker than expected ad revenue in the first quarter of 2012 has led to a revision.
MagnaGlobal said the market will contract further in quarters two and three, with a resurgence expected in quarter four of this calendar year.
MagnaGlobal Australia managing director Victor Corones said it was difficult to gain true visibility of the market, because many advertisers are booking their campaigns only three to six weeks before launch.
Corones said: “The current economic backdrop continues to shake both business and consumer confidence and is unlikely to turnaround in the short term. Even with the RBA easing interest rates it’s unlikely to boost confidence in the immediate short term.”
MagnaGlobal has revised its predictions of 0.2% growth in the total television market, down to 1% decline.
The group has predicted declines of 9.5% and 10.5% for newspapers and magazines respectively. These drops are significantly lower than previous forecasts.
Traditional out-of-home will grow 3.1% while digital out-of-home will increase 17.3%, the group has predicted. MagnaGlobal has said radio will grow 1%.
In contrast, the group has forecast greater growth in internet ad sales than previously expected. It was initially forecast internet would see a 14.4% increase, but MagnaGlobal is now predicting growth of 19.5%.
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