Ten's ad revenue share tipped to rise

James McGrath
By James McGrath | 4 June 2015

Buyers have backed calls that Ten would get a higher share of revenue at the expense of Nine and Seven in current negotiations. 

Yesterday Credit Suisse analyst Fraser McLeish told investors in a note that Ten would invariably grab a bigger share of the advertising pie going forward.

He confirmed to AdNews that the call was on the back of an increased share of viewing audiences for the first four months of the year rather than any particular intel from agencies.

McLeish said in the note that shows such as The Bachelor, Shark Tank, Gogglebox, I'm a Celebrity, and increased ratings for the Big Bash League had contributed to his view.

Buyers this morning were keen to keep quiet on the analyst observations given many are in negotiations at the moment, but they said it was getting harder to predict the year ahead.

They said there were some unexpected results from Seven and Nine shows while Ten outperformed expectations, but that Seven and Nine would likely come back in the second half of the year.

They were also seeing weaknesses in key advertising demographics year on year, with one buyer telling AdNews that while Ten was increasing its share of 25-54s, the category was down on raw numbers by about 9% year on year.

In his note, McLeish forecast Ten to hit a 22% revenue share, up from 20.6% in the 2015 financial year. The increase in share, he said, would invariably come at the expense of Seven and Nine -- marking a reversal of trend where Seven and Nine grabbed share from Ten.

The resounding note of confidence in the network comes at a time when TV networks enter buying negotiations with GroupM, all competing for a slice of the group's $1 billion TV advertising pie, which is also open to digital players.

Other buying groups are also in the market.

Ten's chief sales officer, Louise Barrett, told an audience at its upfronts presentation in November last year that it deserved a larger share of the revenue pie.

“There’s no need for you to be excessively compensating the competition. I know you all, and I know what you want, and what you need. You keep telling us that you need three viable free-to-air networks and that means, respectfully, giving Network Ten the revenue share it deserves,” she said.

At its latest set of results, where it unveiled a $264 million loss for the first half of the year, CEO Hamish McLennan said that the conversation with advertisers was starting to turn after difficult 12 months in 2014.

“I've been very encouraged about the dialogue we've had with advertisers and media buyers about our shows and the integration opportunities within that,” McLennan told analysts this morning.

“There's certainly a greater willingness to talk to Ten than there has been in the previous 12 months.”

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