The total media growth outlook for Australia has been downgraded to just 0.2% in 2023 as tougher economic conditions take hold, according to GroupM’s latest bi-annual global media spend forecasts.
The flat outlook compares GroupM's December forecast of 3.4% growth for 2023.
Melissa Hey, GroupM chief investment officer, says2023 is delivering the expected challenge of tougher economic conditions.
"The impact of higher interest rates, rising energy costs and the increased cost of living are contributing to a flat market forecast for the year," she says.
"While 2023 has started slower than anticipated, there are pockets of growth including BVOD, podcasts and streaming.
"Digital continues to see growth, and retail media remains a bright spot on the horizon driven by increased players, greater innovation and changing consumer behaviours.
"While the cost-of-living increases may continue to impact consumers in the second half of the year, the marketing lessons from previous downturns remain the same: the brands that maintain a consistent market presence through advertising gain an extra share of voice and consumer trust.”
Total television revenues (including Linear, Subscription and BVOD) is forecast to fall 6.1%.
However, online commerce remains a crucial driver of digital growth, with a 37.5% growth forecast.
Total digital and out-of-home media continue to enjoy positive momentum with forecasted growth of 3.6% and 9% respectively.
Cinema revenues are also robust, with 10.1% growth, albeit off a much smaller base.
Magazines are a surprise performer, with a 10.4% growth including digital extensions, – the first growth period in 12 years. But newspapers are set to decline -13.3%.
Total audio is set to see -3.3 fall despite podcast and streaming seeing growth of 12.8%.
The global forecast for advertising growth is 5.9% to $874.5 billion (excluding U.S. political advertising).
Top 10 markets by GroupM:
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