Election 2022 - We know who's going to win

Jason Pollock
By Jason Pollock | 20 May 2022
Aditya Joshi via Unsplash.

The result of the federal election can be forecast with 95% accuracy, according to one analysis of Google data

Jared Bennett, an SEO specialist based in Brisbane, used Google Search Volume Data in conjunction with Google News to correctly predict the outcome of 143 out of 151 seats in the 2019 federal poll. 

A high correlation was found between the amount of searches a candidate's name received in April 2019 and the eventual winner of the popular vote. 

The same methodology has been applied to 2022 data to form a list of winners for all 151 electorates, suggesting 15 independent candidates will be successful on election day, resulting in a hung parliament.

“With opinion polls coming under heavy criticism for their inaccurate prediction of a sweeping Labor victory in the 2019 federal election, I thought I’d test whether Google search data could be a viable alternative for predicting the outcome of the 2022 election," writes Bennett

“Checking the search volume for each federal candidate’s name via Google’s keyword planner tool for the April 2019 period revealed a strong correlation between the number of searches for a candidate and the eventual winner of the popular vote. 

“In simpler terms; whoever’s name was searched for the most in Google generally went on to receive the most votes on election day.”

A full breakdown of the predicted results HERE.

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