Preliminary SMI (Standard Media Index) data, excluding government spend, shows media agency bookings down 11.6% in May.
The numbers mark the eighth month to show a fall in ad spend. In April final numbers from the SMI index showed Australia's media agency market falling 7.6% with underlying advertising spend at $522 million.
This was a big improvement on preliminary numbers which had shown the index down 18.1% for April
Like in April, the May the numbers are expected to improve when the final numbers are added.
Investment bank UBS says May metro TV bookings were, looking at the raw numbers, down 1.9%.
However, they note Clive Palmer's United Australia Party's massive spend was not bought through agencies, and so was not captured in the SMI.
"Inclusive of this direct spend, TV ad market growth was likely positive," say UBS analysts Eric Choi, Tom Beadle and Minnie Tong in a note to clients.
The SMI data does capture political party spend through agencies.
For TV as a whole, political party spend was up 2,700%, or $26 million, for the month.
Based on the early May SMI data, regional TV bookings rose 5.7% compared to May last year, metro radio added 9.5%, regional radio fell 8.3%, newspapers dropped 15.9%, outdoor slipped 10.3%, and digital was down 29.9%.
"We expect the digital growth rate to improve significantly once late bookings are accounted for," the analysts write.
The preliminary numbers, according to UBS:
At an industry level, the key advertiser category which grew spend was political parties and unions, up 1551%, or $36 million, compared to May last year.
The May national election was a dampner for usually strong advertising categories.
Banks spending was down 39% or $12 million, automotive brands 18% or $14 million, and retail dropped 15% or $8 million.
UBS points out that analysing the media sector can be difficult.
"The media sector is driven by a combination of advertising, consumer spending and corporate spending, which are inherently difficult to predict," the analysts say.
"In addition, the emergence of major structural changes to the Australian media landscape means that the historic performance of the media industry is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of future performance."
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