'Pessimistic' media outlook for next three years: Expert

By AdNews | 17 January 2013

Media analyst Steve Allen has argued the media market will struggle in the coming years despite 3.4% growth in 2013, in a report titled 'Oh dear, things just won't get better, and most likely, not for a long time'.

While the managing director for Fusion Strategy has suggested the media market will grow 3.4% this year, he has nonetheless said that he has shifted his position “from a moderately optimistic view and projection of the media marketplace, to a slightly pessimistic mid term view”.

Allen has argued market conditions will not change over the next two or three years, and that the small growth in 2013 will be led primary by online increases, with almost all other media seeing relatively flat growth. Cinema will be the only other channel to record solid increases, off a low base.

In the coming twelve months, the analyst has suggested newspapers will be hit the hardest, dropping a further 4.11% to $2.5 billion in advertising revenue. While this is significantly less than the 14% freefall of newspapers in 2012, it represents the largest decline in 2013.

Meanwhile, magazines will experience a slight reprieve with 3.2% growth in 2013, after a 14.9% decline in 2012.

Free-to-air television will grow 2.5% this year after a 3.2% drop in 2012, while radio will jump 2% after a 1% fall last year. Outdoor will see 3% growth this year following 2.3% growth last year.

Pay TV will not experience the same highs it did last year, according to Allen, with just 4.6% growth, compared to 10.8% last year.

Meanwhile, the star performers in 2013 will be internet and cinema, with 10.1% and 12.2% growth respectively.

Allen has also predicted 3.6% growth in 2014 and 3.4% growth in 2015.

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