ANALYSIS: A tale of two retailers and their neuro Christmas advertising

By Casey Kudrenko | 18 December 2019
 

Casey Kudrenko is a senior analyst at Neuro-Insight, an analytics company that uses brain-imaging technology.

Winning over the (hearts and) minds of consumers at Christmas is an advertising battlefield.

The anaemic growth in retail sales leading into this Christmas has made the competitive stakes even higher.

Neuro Insights' subconscious tracking has unlocked the retail ad effectiveness landscape in the run up to Christmas.

This tinsel tussle is best captured in the comparison of two retailers – Target vs Big W. The triangulation of leading and contemporaneous metrics reveals how these two retailers have positioned themselves over November and December in the minds of consumers. The only question remaining – Will the sales dollar follow?

Our Two-Pronged Approach
Neuro-Insight assessed over a six week period the evolving effectiveness of the retailers' Christmas ads as well as their association with Christmas.

Two complimentary techniques were used to tap into the sub-conscious processes: neuroimaging (Steady State Topography, SST) and an implicit-based cognitive task (nPlicit).

The Neuroscience

We rely on Neuroscience to capture responses from various regions of the brain, responsible for various cognitive functions. These functions ultimately form key measures; Long-Term Memory Encoding (LTME), Engagement (personal relevance/relatability), Emotional Intensity, Approach/ Withdrawal (like/dislike) and Attention.

When it comes to effectiveness, LTME is a  key predictive measure, due to it’s strong and highly researched link in influencing consumer behaviour. This measure reveals what the brain is storing (encoding) into conscious and unconscious long-term memory. LTME forms the core of a unique algorithm based on Memorability, Brand Impact, Likability, Emotionality, Attention and Relevance. Neuro-Insight’s Neuro-Ignite© score is currently employed in market as the key score for creative effectiveness comparison.

figure 1
Fig. 1 Neuro-Insight’s Neuro-Ignite© Score (t = 6 weeks, n total = 400+)


In figure 1, we see a comparison of the Neuro-Ignite© scores for the Big W and Target Christmas campaigns. During the first week, we witness the Target execution out-perform Big W’s by 20.51%.

However, thereafter Target appears to fluctuate and ultimately trail behind Big W’s ad performance.

In the most recent capture (December 9) of the retailer’s ad effectiveness, the Big W ad outperformed Target by 14.95%.

Neuro-Insight anticipates an eventual shift away from Target towards Big W in the implicit association with Christmas.

Implicit Brand Surveillance
How did associations with Christmas change?

To measure this true implicit association over time, we initiated nationwide deployment of nPlicit©, an associative priming task (APT). The APT is a validated measure of subconscious associations. Congruent associations facilitate faster reaction times than incongruent relationships, and by fast we mean fractions of a second, enabling this to be a true sub-conscious response – faster than thought.

Figure 2 below reveals an early (w/c November 21) moderate association between the two retailers and Christmas.

However, the neuro response progressively changed about three weeks before associations changed.

As consumers sleigh closer to Christmas, their association between Big W and Christmas strengthens.

But Target shows a steep drop in it’s association with Christmas and appears to sustain this position over the time period.
figure 2
Fig. 2 NPlicit©, Retailer’s Implicit Attribution overtime (t = 6 weeks, n total > 600, nat. metro)

While the responses to a survey (Figure 3) showcases the edge held by Big W over Target, there appears to be a miss-match between the implicit (true sub-conscious response) and the explicit survey response.

On balance, we believe the subconscious metrics to be of far greater accuracy than the survey.

figure 3
Fig. 3 Explicit, Option Prompted Survey Response (n= 150, nat. metro)

So, what?

If the effectiveness of retail advertising and association with Christmas is anything to go by, we’d predict that Big W will have a stronger Christmas than Target.

However, consumer spending looks like it’s shaping up to be one of the toughest in recent memory.

This only serves to place greater pressure on the measurement and accountability of every marketing dollar. This tough environment also puts the pressure on researchers to predict performance and de-risk the execution through quick, actionable optimisation to avoid misattribution or missing the mark completely. Neuro-Insight challenge marketers to seek-out the leading metrics that underpin the business case of advertising.

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