PERSPECTIVES: Will the ad market return to growth in 2020?

By John Broome, CEO, Australian Association of National Advertisers | 9 December 2019
 
John Broome

This first appeared in the AdNews 2019 Annual edition. Subscribe here for your copy.

The year 2019: the marketing industry trod water and had a cold hard look at itself. It would have to mark itself a C-minus at best. Growth was lackluster, ad spend was down and various parties used the ACCC Digital Platforms inquiry to push their sectoral interests.

Is 2019 a year to fade into the vanilla of time? Perhaps not. There have been notable, bright moments particularly from two brands that have reminded us that a clear strategy, amazing creativity, a distinctive proposition and a strong dose of courage add up to effectiveness and business outcomes. I am talking about the new campaigns from Westpac and NRMA Insurance.

Both are great examples of brand-led growth strategies and a beacon to the industry. These campaigns highlight what the industry is beginning to recalibrate around, namely that we must be long and short, mass and targeted, and in Greg Creed’s words at RESET “bold and simple”.

For the past few years, we have been trying to work out how all the new toys available to us perform and deliver results. This has distracted us from the fundamentals, the core competencies and the empirical evidence of what works. I think we will see a lot of recalibration in 2020.

But what else for 2020? Impacting the industry, we will see the government take at least some, if not all, of the ACCC inquiry recommendations forward into legislation. Other than leveling the playing field on news journalism, we can expect a strong focus on data privacy and an attempt to rein in the market power of the digital platforms. Australia needs its version of GDPR. Trust is the foundation of a healthy and vibrant online ecosystem for the industry and the community. We should work together to rebuild this.

Will we see the ad market return to growth? Perhaps. But I suspect it will not be across the board. With consumer confidence at a four-year low, marketers will need to work differently and harder. I cannot see businesses opening their wallets. But these are the ideal circumstances for the brave to step up and show how marketing can deliver.

The digitisation of everything and use of data will open up fresh insights and options for growth. The media industry will continue to transform. Expect media agencies to embrace data, repositioning themselves more in line with the big four consultancies with a holistic offer. Christian Juhl’s appointment to GroupM globally will be interesting to watch. Will we see a shift from traditional buying shop to a professional services company where Al and data are the foundation of a more attractive media services proposition to marketers? I suspect GroupM will at least try to do this.

And finally, outdoor is my pick for the channel to watch next. Yes, further digitisation of sites will drive revenue growth, but the real opportunity is digital cities where large, iconic digitised screens link together to monopolise attention, to deliver a campaign idea with impact. A brand can progress from a row of bus stops to a complete takeover of a city centre, several times a day.

So, another tough year to come but such is our industry! Would you swap it for any other? No way.

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